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9:45 AM ET, November 3, 2026

memeorandum

 Top Items: 
Mike Zapler / Axios:
Democrats could learn wrong message from a blowout victory  —  Democrats are poised to romp in today's election — easily winning the House and, according to most forecasts, flipping the Senate too. … Even the GOP has a better brand. … Confusing the two could tempt Democrats to overread …
RELATED:
G. Elliott Morris / FiftyPlusOne:
The final polls and race ratings show a late shift toward Democrats  —  The party has gained ground in the generic ballot and several key Senate races, according to both the polls and expert handicappers  —  G. Elliott Morris, FiftyPlusOne, and Katie Marriner
Susan B. Glasser / New Yorker:
Finally, the Beginning of Trump's End  —  In recent decades, the second terms of American Presidents have not ended well.  Ronald Reagan had the Iran-Contra affair; Bill Clinton, after attempting to cover up his affair with a former intern, became the first chief executive impeached since the mid-nineteenth century.
Politico:
'We forgot what it's like to be populist': Republicans see Trump's 2024 crumbling  —  New results from the POLITICO Poll show that one in 10 Trump voters are planning to vote for Democrats on Tuesday.  —  Republicans' 2024 coalition is cracking in real time.
Discussion: The Independent
Politico:
‘The Armageddon of all elections’  —  With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner  —  THAT'S HOW THE COALITION CRUMBLES: If you're looking for a sign of how dire the environment looks for Republicans in November 2026, stark new results from The POLITICO Poll show the bloc …
Jonathan Martin / Politico:
Republicans Can Blame Trump for Their Midterm Woes … When it becomes clear Tuesday night or Wednesday morning that Republicans have taken “a thumper,” to borrow Bill Clinton's phrase, President Donald Trump will lunge for scapegoats.  —  Trump will claim Republican candidates should have embraced …
Discussion: Wall Street Journal
Glenn Kessler / MS NOW:
I've spent years fact-checking Trump.  Here are 5 election claims he's already making — and the facts undercutting them.  —  Consistency has never been President Donald Trump's strong suit, but he has been consistent about one thing: If Republicans do poorly in Tuesday's midterm elections …
Kyle Cheney / Politico:
Election Day in America  —  Voters are taking to the polls in a midterm election that will define the future of both parties.  —  ‘He is the threat’: Dem AGs brace for Trump moves after polls close  —  They've spent months “war gaming” and “table-topping” for this moment.
Discussion: Truthout
Annabella Rosciglione / The Daily Beast:
Election ‘Nostradamus’ Reveals Final Midterm Prediction
Discussion: The Spectator
Mona Charen / The Bulwark:
Trump Was Right. He Is on the Ballot.
John F. Harris / Politico:   The Told-You-So Primary Starts Tomorrow
Michael Podhorzer / Weekend Reading:   The Confederate Realignment  —  Note: Much of what follows is drawn from a larger book-length project I've been working on.
Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks  —  Trump told reporters Monday 'we haven't been doing any fighting for months'  —  The U.S. attacked Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried …
RELATED:
New York Times:
U.S. Military Strikes Iran's Qeshm Island in What U.S. Officials Call a Defensive Measure  —  The action was limited, the officials said, with no immediate plans to escalate.  The strikes come on the eve of the midterm elections.  —  The U.S. military struck Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday …
E. Lansing / US Department of Justice:
DOJ To Monitor Elections in All 50 States for First Time  —  For Immediate Release  —  One of the Department of Justice's (DOJ) most important missions is ensuring election integrity, supporting free and fair elections, and protecting the right to vote for U.S. citizens across the United States.
RELATED:
Politico:
Election Day in America  —  Voters are taking to the polls in a midterm election that will define the future of both parties.  —  Trump admin's win short-lived as appeals court restores DOJ restrictions overnight  —  In a rush of overnight activity, a federal appeals court left …
Discussion: Bloomberg
RELATED:
Jacob Knutson / Democracy Docket:
Ninth Circuit wipes out ruling allowing Trump administration to threaten election officials  —  The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals canceled a prior order that briefly permitted the Trump administration to threaten to prosecute state and local election officials who do not follow the department's directives for handling ballots.
Discussion: Fox News
Lawrence Hurley / NBC News:
Supreme Court quickly rejects Trump effort to target alleged noncitizen voters in California
Mira Bhakta / The Hill:
Stevens shares rationale for endorsing Rogers over El-Sayed  —  Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) shared her rationale for her recent decision to endorse former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the state's contested Senate race, citing campaign ads, among other reasons.
RELATED:
Politico:
Michigan Republicans wish Haley Stevens had flipped earlier
Olivia Reingold / The Free Press:
I Interviewed Haley Stevens at 11 PM on Her Fiancé's Couch. Here's Why She Broke with Abdul El-Sayed.
G. Elliott Morris / Strength In Numbers:
2026 ELECTION DAY LIVE BLOG  —  What to follow on Election Day and how to watch results come in, Strength In Numbers style  —  Intro  —  Welcome to the Strength In Numbers Election Day live blog!  This page is your one-stop shop for all things data-driven commentary on Election Day 2026.
Discussion: The Downballot
RELATED:
G. Elliott Morris / Strength In Numbers:   FINAL forecast: a blue wave, or a blue tsunami?
Shawn McCreesh / New York Times:
Trump Delivers a Closing Midterm Message.  Mostly About Landscaping.  —  On the eve of the election, the president held forth in great detail on columns, drain pipes and granite at the newly refilled Reflecting Pool.  —  President Trump was standing in front of the Reflecting Pool on Monday afternoon …
RELATED:
Wall Street Journal:
Trump Surprises Republicans With Election Eve Speech About Reflecting Pool
Lisa Needham / Public Notice:
James O'Keefe's Minnesota stunt backfires spectacularly  —  The fraud came from inside the house. … Well, well, well.  —  Do you think those cringy scammers, James O'Keefe and Cam Higby, have enjoyed being hoisted by their own petard, as it were?  Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty …
Miles Klee / Wired:
The Online Right's Closing Campaign Argument: Fascist Anakin Skywalker Memes  —  With Democrats poised to make significant gains in Tuesday's midterm elections, Trump supporters have been reduced to posting bizarre Star Wars fan fiction.  —  If you quit checking X months ago …
Discussion: Gizmodo and Reason
Don Moynihan / Can We Still Govern?:
Accountability Day for Musk?  —  Democracy depends upon a simple rule, what we might call the Spider-Man principle: with great power comes great responsibility.  And responsibility in a democracy includes accountability: answering for actions taken using public power and resources.
Discussion: Silver Bulletin and Raw Story
Bret Stephens / New York Times:
What a Vote for Abdul El-Sayed Means  —  On a recent visit to Temple Israel in West Bloomfield Township, Mich., I heard from someone who described the state's U.S. Senate race this year as a choice either against antisemitism or for democracy.  —  What he meant was that a vote for Mike Rogers …
Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling / New Republic:
Pete Hegseth Makes Over Half the Military Want to Quit Early … The Trump administration's hyperpoliticized military environment apparently has thousands of active-duty military members looking toward the exit.  —  A survey by Common Defense Civic Engagement, a grassroots veterans organization …
Oliver Darcy / Status:
Murdochs' MAGA Math … The analyst, Michael Morris of Guggenheim Securities, pressed Murdoch about the staggering ratings declines Fox News is experiencing ahead of the midterm elections—a troubling trend for the pro-MAGA network that Status first reported on last week.
Mike Catalini / Associated Press:
When will we know who controls Congress?  It could be a while  —  The stakes in Tuesday's election — which party will control Congress — are crystal clear.  But when that will be known is impossible to say.  —  The Associated Press will be calling races in all 435 House districts …
Ken Burns / New York Times:
Why I'm Optimistic About the Midterms  —  There have been three great crises in American history: the Civil War, perhaps the defining event in our history after the Revolution itself, the Great Depression and World War II.  These events tested our republic and our resolve in fundamental ways …
 
 
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 More Items: 
Judd Legum / Popular Information:
$1.4 billion in dark money
Discussion: The Guardian and New York Times
Ta-Nehisi Coates / Vanity Fair:
Ta-Nehisi Coates on Haley Stevens, Abdul El-Sayed, and the Right's “Campaign of Hate”
Jonathan Levin / Bloomberg:
The Dollar Is Reasserting Itself as the King of Global Finance
New York Times:
For Midterms Night, a TV Schedule Overflowing With Options
Jesse Wegman / New York Times:
Justice Kagan Sounds an Alarm About the Court
Discussion: MS NOW and National Review
Greg Rosalsky / NPR:
Two economists studied California's billionaire tax. They reached wildly different conclusions
Axios:
GOP's midterm blame game starts early
 Earlier Items: 
William Vaillancourt / The Daily Beast:
Why Trump Is Entering His Worst-Ever Doom Spiral: Political Guru
New York Post:
Mamdani raises eyebrows with new look, ditching beard and sporting surprising mustache
New York Times:
Trump Administration Said to Plan Rolling Back Pregnancy-Related Job Protections
Discussion: Joe.My.God.
Natalie Hausmann / Democracy Docket:
Supreme Court swiftly rejects Trump administration bid to block California voters
New York Times:
Grand Jury Rejects Bid by Justice Dept. to Bring Charges Over Voter Fraud
Discussion: Joe.My.God.