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8:10 PM ET, November 4, 2008

memeorandum

 Top Items: 
Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight.com:
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls  —  Oh, let me count the ways.  Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ.  For the long version, see over there.  —  1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls.
RELATED:
Joe Lieberman / The Huffington Post:
Exit Polls 2008: See The Full Results  —  (More exit polls coming soon.  We explain why you shouldn't trust them below.)  —  The head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source.  These are traditionally unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt (see: Kerry's winning margins in 2004).
Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
Looking for Presidential Exit Polls?  —  Looking for leaked exit poll results from the Obama-McCain presidential race?  Sorry to break the news, but until at least 5:00 p.m. today you are out of luck.  —  Following the 2004 election, when partial and misleading results leaked out at mid day …
Marc Ambinder:
National Exit Poll Data....First Takes...
Discussion: Salon
Michelle Malkin:
Obama's civilian security force: Billy club-wielding security guards at Philly polls  —  Here's the vid of billy club-wielding “security” guards at the 1221 Fairmount Ave. polling place in Philly from Election Journal.  Just as I suspected, these guys look like NBPP from the emblem on one of the “guard's” jackets.
RELATED:
Michelle Malkin:
Black Panther intimidation at the polls? …
Matt Lewis / Townhall.com:
Rush Limbaugh on Black Panthers Engaging in Voter Intimidation
Discussion: Marc Ambinder
Ed Morrissey / Hot Air:
Video: Black Panther poll intimidation in Pennsylvania?
Amanda Carpenter / Townhall.com:
A Repeat of 2004 Philly Voter Chaos, Fraud  —  GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in at least half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphia because of their party status.  —  A Pennsylvania judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers …
RELATED:
Market Wire:
Republican National Committee Prepares for Computerized Voting Fraud Legal Battle  —  Forensicon, Inc., a Chicago-based computer forensics company, was contacted last Thursday by a security firm lining up vendors to assist the Republican National Committee with consulting related to potential allegations of computerized voter fraud.
Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs
Ben Smith / Ben Smith's Blogs:
Poll problems and poll problem spin
Discussion: Macsmind
Attiyah Buford / NBC Philadelphia:
Voting Problems in Philly & South Jersey
Discussion: Fausta's Blog and Firedoglake
Skip / GraniteGrok:
BREAKING - POSSIBLE VOTER FRAUD IN NH!
Washington Wire:
Ohio GOP Presents More Complaints About Election Official
Discussion: The Caucus
Peter Hamby / CNN:
Palin discusses her future  —  Gov. Sarah Palin cast her vote in Wasilla, Alaska and spoke to reporters about her future.  (AP PHOTO)  —  WASILLA, Alaska (CNN) — Sarah Palin appeared calm and confident Tuesday morning during her brief sojourn to Wasilla, Alaska, where she greeted hometown supporters …
Discussion: Needlenose and Washington Monthly
City Room:
Tim Robbins Faces Mix-Up at Polling Place  —  The actor Tim Robbins, looked dejected and annoyed around 10:30 a.m., as he was sitting in a folding chair at the McBurney YMCA at 125 West 14th Street, one of the more than 1,300 polling places throughout New York City.
RELATED:
TMZ.com:
Tim Robbins Couldn't Vote — Cops Called
David Remnick / New Yorker:
MR. AYERS'S NEIGHBORHOOD  —  Early this morning, the Obama family voted at the Beulah Shoesmith Elementary School, in Hyde Park.  Long after they had gone, the lawn in front of the school was filled with reporters, mostly Europeans, filming voters.  While I was talking to an eight-year-old kid dressed …
RELATED:
Satyam Khanna / Think Progress:
Lieberman: ‘I Fear’ That ‘America Will Not Survive’ If Democrats Get 60 Senate Seats  —  With the possibility that Democrats might soon gain a filibuster proof majority in the Senate, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has been openly flirting with thoughts of voting with his conservative colleagues.
Seanmalstrom / Malstrom's Articles News:
Toast  —  I've checked my email, and I have over a hundred new messages.  And I can't get to anything resorting to ‘Sean Malstrom’ due to real life situations.  Luckily I changed my career gears long ago.  But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed.
James Pethokoukis / US News:
The Latest From Inside McCain HQ  —  I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction.  The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.
Discussion: PoliGazette and Gateway Pundit
Marc Ambinder:
An Obama “Urgent” E-mail  —  A New York City-based Obama home phonebanker who's been making calls through the MyBO.com hub to PA and VA says he just received this e-mail:
Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight.com:
Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189  —  It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America.  The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain.  Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.
Boyd Reed / eastside93's Blog:
I Didn't Vote For Obama Today  —  I have a confession to make.  —  I did not vote for Barack Obama today.  —  I've openly supported Obama since March.  But I didn't vote for him today.  —  I wanted to vote for Ronald Woods.  He was my algebra teacher at Clark Junior High in East St. Louis, IL.
Ali Frick / Think Progress:
Fearful Conservatives Push New Talking Point: ‘This Is A Center-Right Country’  —  Last Friday, Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer called the United States “the quintessential center-right country,” and wondered why it was “poised to reject” Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), “the quintessential center-right candidate.”
Discussion: Washington Monthly
HillBuzz:
Five Reasons Obama Lost This Election  —  We truly believe if all of us continue to work as hard as possible tonight and tomorrow in get-out-the-vote efforts, and if we control the Eeyores in our midst and prevent the Obamedia from depressing turnout in our ranks, that McCain/Palin …
Maureen Groppe / Indianapolis Star:
Vigo Co. bellweather of U.S. voting  —  TERRE HAUTE, Ind. — As Vigo County goes, so goes the nation.  —  The county has for decades most closely matched the national vote for president of any county in the country.  —  Vigo County politicos are used to the county being considered a bellwether.
Bob Cusack / The Hill:
Schumer on Fox: Fairness Doctrine ‘fair and balanced’  —  Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday defended the so-called Fairness Doctrine in an interview on Fox News, saying, “I think we should all be fair and balanced, don't you?”  —  Schumer's comments echo other Democrats' views …
Ben Pershing / Washington Post:
Obama and McCain Split First States in Historic Contest  —  The first polls have begun to close in the contest to decide whether Barack Obama or John McCain will serve as the 44th president of the United States, marking the culmination of an historic campaign season that began …
Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight.com:
Indiana...  Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far.  Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry — which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.  —  Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%  —  DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Discussion: Slog and Openers
Nora Ephron / The Huffington Post:
Thinking About Bill  —  As I listened to Sarah Palin's recent phone call with “Nikolas Sarkozy,” I couldn't help thinking about Bill Kristol.  —  I think about Bill Kristol far too much.  I almost never used to.  Before he began writing his Monday column in the New York Times, I rarely saw him on television.
Discussion: The Heretik
Myglesias / Matthew Yglesias:
Good Riddance  —  Today being the day America chooses a successor, it's worth reflecting for a moment on the abysmal leader we have right now.  I think an issue like asking whether or not George W. Bush is the worst president we've ever had gets a little too imponderable considering the historical issues.
Charles Mahtesian / The Politico:
25 key counties to watch tonight  —  In presidential elections, not all counties are created equal.  —  Generally, the counties that matter most are located in closely contested states, where they play a key role in determining the winner.  Thus the most populous county in the U.S. …
Discussion: The Moderate Voice
Michael Crowley / The New Republic:
A GOTV Glitch For Obama?  —  A friend in the field for Obama passes on this tip: … Another friend working in Ohio chimes in: … “This is just not true,” an Obama campaign source responds.  But the original tips come from people I know and trust, so I have to think something's awry.
Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs
 
 
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 More Items: 
Noam Scheiber / The New Republic:
Why No Bin Laden Tape?
Discussion: Stop The ACLU
Julian Walker / Virginian-Pilot:
McCain campaign sues over overseas military ballots
Rob Crilly / Times of London:
Barack Obama's Kenyan family to celebrate by slaughtering bulls, chicken and goats
Discussion: The Corner and Althouse
Ben Smith / Ben Smith's Blogs:
Rick vs. Joe
Jill Zuckman / The Swamp:
McCain plane aborts landing in N.M.
Discussion: TIME.com
 Earlier Items: 
Myglesias / Matthew Yglesias:
The Difference-Makers  —  I've been a little bit surprised …
Discussion: Kevin Drum
Benjamin Sarlin / The Daily Beast:
In an exclusive interview with The Daily Beast, Rowena Willis …
Andrew Malcolm / Top of the Ticket:
Go home.  No need to vote.  Oprah's already got her Obama inaugural ball gown
Mark Murray / MSNBC:
NADER: I HAVE ONLY ONE WORD FOR YOU...  From MSNBC.com's Bob Sullivan
Discussion: The New Republic and Wonkette
WSB-TV:
Some Georgians Suspected Of Voting Twice
Discussion: Power Line
John McCormick / The Swamp:
Obama says Indiana win within reach
Marc Ambinder:
A Relatively Smooth Election. Really.
 

 
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