memeorandum: Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP (Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight)

6:50 PM ET, October 23, 2016

Top Items:

Gary Langer / ABC News:

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL) — Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues …

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, CANNONFIRE, Politico, Taylor Marsh, AOL, The Daily Caller, Daily Wire, Booman Tribune, Politicus USA, Damian J. Penny and RedState

CBS News:

Clinton leads in Florida, Trump narrowly leads in Texas - CBS Battleground Tracker — Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, while in Texas - a state that has voted Republican by wide margins in recent years - Trump leads by a mere three points.

Discussion: Bloomberg.com, CBS New York and Politicus USA

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:

Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP — Instead of a poll, let's start today's Election Update with some actual votes. According to the estimable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 20-percentage-point turnout edge so far based …

Discussion: New York Magazine, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Hullabaloo and Talking Points Memo

John Merline / Investor's Business Daily:

Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide, While Clinton Campaigns As If The Race Is Already Won — IBD/TIPP Poll — With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Discussion: Breitbart and The Gateway Pundit

New York Times:

Hillary Clinton Presses Her Advantage Over a Struggling Donald Trump — Hillary Clinton moved to press her advantage in the presidential race on Sunday, urging black voters in North Carolina to vote early as Republicans increasingly conceded that Donald J. Trump is unlikely to recover in the polls.

Discussion: Mother Jones, Daily Kos, alan.com and ThinkProgress

Jon Ralston / KTNV:

The Nevada Early Voting Blog — UPDATED, 10/23/16, 1 PM — I now have the district totals for the first day of early voting and the down-ballot numbers also are awful for the GOP. It is early but: — CD3: Registration is 37-35, Democratic. First day: 3,000 raw-vote lead for Democrats. 47 percent …

The Hill: Clinton holds huge ground game advantage over Team Trump

Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Donald Trump for president — These are turbulent times. — More and more Americans express frustration and disillusionment today with the political institutions that govern the nation. They clamor for an alternative to the incestuous and pernicious atmosphere dominating the capital.

Discussion: Mediaite, New York Times, AOL, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Mashable, The Week and BizPac Review, more at Mediagazer »

Laurence Tribe / CNN: Bush v. Gore lawyer: Trump's dangerous nonsense

Isaac Arnsdorf / Politico:

Priebus: Trump ‘not willing to not concede’ — Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Sunday he knows what Donald Trump really thinks about accepting the results of the election, despite the GOP presidential nominee's refusal to say he will.

Jenna Johnson / Washington Post:
Donald Trump's campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Discussion: Media Matters for America, Fox News, CNN and Daily Kos

Associated Press:
The Latest: Clinton Asks for Time off to Watch World Series

Discussion: ABC News and Politico

Extra Mustard / SI.com:

Around 15 people showed up to Curt Schilling's Trump rally on Saturday — Former Red Sox pitcher and current political neophyte Curt Schilling held a Trump “rally” outside Boston's city on Saturday, but uh, it wasn't much of a rally. — According to folks passing by …

Discussion: alan.com and Media Matters for America

Gabriel Sherman / New York Magazine:
Curt Schilling Joins Breitbart

Discussion: Media Matters for America, Mediaite and Balloon Juice, more at Mediagazer »

Julia Ioffe / Foreign Policy:

Trump Won't Inherit the Land, So He's Sowing It with Salt — It's a tactic straight out of Putin's playbook. — When Donald Trump said on Tuesday night that he would leave us in “suspense” come November 9, much of the country let out a gasp and the statement has dominated campaign coverage ever since.

Desert Sun:

Tour bus crash in California kills at least 11, closes I-10 — A bus crashed into a big rig on I-10. At least 11 people are dead. Colin Atagi/The Desert Sun — CONNECT — At least 11 people are dead after a Los Angeles tour bus returning from a trip to a Thermal casino collided …

Discussion: Washington Post and NPR

Fox News:
At least 13 people reported dead in California tour bus, semi-truck crash

Discussion: CBS Los Angeles, John Hawkins' Right Wing News, FOX 61 and Daily Wire

Sarah K. Burris / Raw Story:

Donald Trump is killing Ivanka's business as women boycott her brand — and the stores that carry it — DON'T MISS STORIES. FOLLOW RAW STORY! — It seems Trump's business spiral isn't isolated to the Donald. And Ivanka Trump might soon need to take her name off of her fashion line now, as well.

Discussion: Yahoo

Jessie Hellmann / The Hill:

Clinton campaign says it has nothing to do with Trump accusers … campaign has nothing to do with the 11 women who have accused Donald Trump — of unwanted sexual advances, a top Clinton aide said Sunday. — “Not that I'm aware of. I don't know about any contact,” campaign manager Robby Mook said on CNN's “State of the Union.”

Amy B Wang / Washington Post:

Eric Trump says his father will accept election results — 'if they're fair' … Eric Trump, the second son of Donald Trump, cast his father as the victim of a smear campaign when asked to respond to numerous new allegations from women, who have said the Republican presidential nominee …

Discussion: Daily Kos and twitchy.com

ABC News:
‘This Week’ Transcript: Eric Trump, Joel Benenson, and Evan McMullin

Discussion: Politicus USA and Politico

Reid Wilson / The Hill:

Late polls show Dems gaining in governor races — A new round of surveys in states electing governors this November show Democrats poised to pick up seats and gain some ground on Republicans in governors' mansions. — Democrats were initially uncertain about their chances to make strides …

Discussion: Washington Monthly, RedState and Washington Post

New York Daily News:

Eric Trump tricked into taking photo with woman wearing shirt that says ‘AGAINST Trump’ in Spanish — Looks like Eric Trump has a muy mal understanding of Spanish. — The Donald's middle son was played for a fool at a North Carolina rally when he posed for a photo with a young woman wearing a “Latinas Contra Trump” shirt.

Discussion: 24Ahead and RedState