memeorandum: A Grim Forecast for Corporate Earnings (Dimitra Defotis/Barron's Online)

12:50 PM ET, December 29, 2011

Top Items:

New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul's Support — I'm not always a big fan of dissecting individual polls — mostly because there are liable to be a plethora of them in Iowa and New Hampshire over the next several days and their errors will tend to be mitigated as more are added to the average.

Discussion: Washington Monthly, Washington Post, Daily Kos, Campaign 2012, The Daily Dish and Hot Air

Jonathan Martin / The Politico:

Bachmann chair's surprise defection — “10 minutes ago,” Sorenson, a GOP state senator, told POLITICO about when the Paul campaign found out he was moving to their camp. — In one of the most surprising moments of the 2012 campaign, Sorenson strolled on stage just moments before Paul …

Discussion: Washington Post, msnbc.com, Boston Globe and Ballot Box

CNN:

Bachmann defection opens new rift in campaign — Des Moines, Iowa (CNN) - One of Michele Bachmann's top campaign advisers is breaking with his own candidate to defend Kent Sorenson, the Bachmann campaign's former Iowa chairman who publicly defected to Ron Paul on Wednesday.

Discussion: Guardian and Daily Kos

Juana Summersand Charles Mahtesian / The Politico:

Ron Paul soft spot emerges: Foreign policy — DES MOINES — Scary. Not serious. To the left of Barack Obama. A threat to the existence of Israel. — With Ron Paul at or near the top of the polls in Iowa, his Republican rivals are sounding the alarms about the Texas congressman's unorthodox foreign policy views.

Discussion: CNN, Mercury Rising and Radio Iowa

Alexander Burns / The Politico:
Michele Bachmann chair defects to Ron Paul

Discussion: Iowa Caucuses, Taylor Marsh, Outside the Beltway, CNN, Pat Dollard, The PJ Tatler, Hot Air, The Daily Caller, americanthinker.com and RADAMISTO

Alexander Burns / The Politico:
Who won the day? Rick Santorum

Discussion: CNN, ABCNEWS, The Other McCain, Politisite, The Caucus and Iowa Caucuses

Jennifer Jacobs / Iowa Caucuses:
Mitt Romney airs final TV ad in Iowa today, plans post-caucus party in Des Moines

Discussion: msnbc.com, Guardian, A plain blog about politics, The Politico, GOP 12 and The Caucus

Kevinliptak / CNN:
CNN Poll: Romney on top, Gingrich fading & Santorum rising in Iowa

James Pethokoukis / The Enterprise Blog:
The Santorum Surge: Using tax policy as pro-family, pro-natalism social policy

Discussion: Ricochet Conversations Feed and GOP 12

Erick Erickson / Erick's blog:
No Surprise, Iowa Social Conservatives Are About To Shoot Us All in the Foot Again

Discussion: The New Republic, Campaign 2012, Balloon Juice, Washington Monthly, The Daily Caller, RedState and The Atlantic Online

USA Today:
As Rick Santorum surges, Newt Gingrich fades fast in Iowa

Discussion: ThinkProgress, Los Angeles Times, Bloomberg, Austin American-Statesman, Washington Times, Washington Post, The Agonist and ABCNEWS

Mark Halperin / The Page:
Bachmann Iowa Chair Ditches Her for Paul

Discussion: The PJ Tatler, Hot Air, The Political Carnival, The Raw Story, Mediaite, Weasel Zippers, Des Moines Register, Weekly Standard, The Caucus, American Power, Mercury Rising, Firedoglake, MN Progressive Project and Race 4 2012

The Daily:
Pro-Bachmann Super PAC switches to Romney

Discussion: Outside the Beltway, Campaign 2012, Hot Air and Ballot Box

Thomas Beaumont / Associated Press: US formally ends Iraq war with little fanfare

Robert Reich:

My Political Prediction for 2012: It's Obama-Clinton — My political prediction for 2012 (based on absolutely no inside information): Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden swap places. Biden becomes Secretary of State — a position he's apparently coveted for years. And Hillary Clinton, Vice President.

Discussion: Outside the Beltway, The Politico, Scared Monkeys, Booman Tribune, Capital Tonight and Nation Now

Robert Reich / Business Insider:
Get Ready For A Obama-Clinton Presidential Ticket

Discussion: The Anchoress, National Review, The Daily Caller and Politisite

Jeffrey M. Jones / Gallup:

Americans See Views of GOP Candidates Closer to Their Own — Obama, Bachmann furthest away on ideological scale — PRINCETON, NJ — Americans perceive Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul as closest to themselves ideologically, and Michele Bachmann and Barack Obama as furthest away.

Discussion: Investor's Business Daily, Hot Air, Weasel Zippers and The PJ Tatler

Frank Newport / Gallup:

Obama, Democrats Have Edge on Payroll Tax, Unemployment — The president and Democrats get higher marks on their job performance this year than GOP — PRINCETON, NJ — Americans have slightly more confidence in President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress (41%) …

Discussion: Campaign 2012 and Daily Kos

Helene Cooper / New York Times:

White House Memo: Obama Gains Reputation as Distant in Washington — WASHINGTON — Air Force One had just landed in Manchester, N.H., on a brisk Tuesday morning last month when President Obama made an admission to Valerie B. Jarrett, his close friend and senior adviser. — “I just called Reggie,” Mr. Obama said.

Discussion: Firedoglake, americanthinker.com and Prairie Weather

Jeffrey Scott Shapiro / Big Government:

EXCLUSIVE: Nancy Pelosi's Daughter: ‘My Mom Wants to Leave Congress’ — Alexandra Pelosi, daughter of House Minority Leader and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, told Big Government this week that her mother wants to leave Congress-and that she remains in Washington only at the behest of her campaign donors.

Discussion: Mediaite, Weasel Zippers, NewsBusters.org blogs and The Other McCain

Karl Rove / Wall Street Journal:

Political Predictions for 2012 — Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid or both will leave the Democratic leadership by year's end. — As New Year's approaches, here are a baker's dozen predictions for 2012. — • Republicans will keep the U.S. House, albeit with their 25-seat majority slightly reduced.

Discussion: Betsy's Page, GOP 12 and The Impolitic

Richard A. Oppel Jr / New York Times:

Ranks of Young Paul Volunteers Willingly Clean Up for the Cause — DES MOINES — Ron Paul's college-aged volunteer army — a core of the powerful ground organization that is the envy of rivals — is descending on Iowa from around the nation to coax people to the state's Republican caucuses …

Discussion: Alan Colmes' Liberaland, Washington Monthly, ABCNEWS, Hotline On Call, msnbc.com, Campaign 2012, American Power, The Caucus and The BLT

Ann Coulter:

ONLY ONE CANDIDATE IS RIGHT ON THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES — In the upcoming presidential election, two issues are more important than any others: repealing Obamacare and halting illegal immigration. If we fail at either one, the country will be changed permanently. — Taxes can be raised and lowered.

Discussion: Pirate's Cove, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, PoliPundit.com, Power Line and Hot Air

Derek Thompson / The Atlantic Online:

Is the U.S. Getting Older and Whiter, or Younger and More Diverse? Yes. — A brief statistical road trip across the swiftly changing, if not swiftly growing, country — The U.S. population grew slower in 2011 than any time in the last 70 years, capping the most lethargic decade of population growth since the 1930s.

Donna St. George / Washington Post:

In Washington area, African American students suspended and expelled two to five times as often as whites — Across the Washington area, black students are suspended and expelled two to five times as often as white students, creating disparities in discipline that experts say reflect a growing national problem.

Discussion: Washington Times, Eschaton and Associated Press

Catherine Rampell / New York Times:

Instead of Work, Younger Women Head to School — Workers are dropping out of the labor force in droves, and they are mostly women. In fact, many are young women. But they are not dropping out forever; instead, these young women seem to be postponing their working lives to get more education.

Discussion: The New Republic, Althouse and Gawker

CNN:

Santorum buying television time in New Hampshire — Des Moines, Iowa (CNN) - On the heels of a new CNN/TIME/ORC poll showing him surging among Republicans in Iowa, Rick Santorum's presidential campaign is scrambling to buy television time in New Hampshire. — A source familiar …

Discussion: GOP 12

Slobodan Lekic / Associated Press:

Afghanistan Signs Its First Oil Contract - With China — KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - Afghanistan's government signed a deal Wednesday with China's state-owned National Petroleum Corporation, allowing it to become the first foreign company to exploit the country's oil and natural gas reserves.

Discussion: Weasel Zippers

Daniel Cancel / Bloomberg:

Chavez: U.S. May Be Behind Leaders' Cancer — Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez hinted that the U.S. may be behind a “very strange” bout of cancer affecting several leaders aligned with him in South America. — Chavez, speaking a day after Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner …

Discussion: americanthinker.com, Jezebel, Weasel Zippers, Politisite, Fausta's Blog and New York Times

Wall Street Journal:

Britain's Future Lies With America, Not Europe — Welcoming Britain back into the North Atlantic economic community would be a win-win for all involved. — In 1952, then-U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson said that “Britain has lost an empire but has failed to find a role.”

Discussion: blogs.telegraph.co.uk and Grim's Hall

Lens:

From North Korea, an Altered Procession — The funeral of Kim Jong-il on Wednesday called to mind the best stage-managed Communist state productions: the falling snow, the wailing mourners, the perfectly spaced limousines and rows of chest-beating men. — So perhaps it was because the scene …

Discussion: Media Decoder, Mediaite and Outside the Beltway

Craig Whitlock / Washington Post:

Pentagon trimming ranks of generals, admirals — With the Iraq war over and troops in Afghanistan on their way home, the U.S. military is getting down to brass tacks: culling generals and admirals from its top-heavy ranks. — Pentagon officials said they have eliminated 27 jobs for generals …

Discussion: Washington Monthly and Prairie Weather