memeorandum: Early bellwethers: Key races to watch once polls close on election night (Sahil Kapur/NBC News)

12:55 PM ET, November 8, 2022

Top Items:

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started — Republicans are favored in the House. The Senate is more competitive. — By Nate Silver — Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM — When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance …

Discussion: Split Ticket, Vox, New York Magazine and Exiled Policy

Sahil Kapur / NBC News:

Early bellwethers: Key races to watch once polls close on election night — Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other key races to watch on Election Day — The 2022 midterms are shaping up to culminate in an unpredictable election night, with recent surveys showing close fights in a host …

Discussion: Washington Post, Politico, The Hill, Washington Examiner, NPR, New York Times, Slate, Sacramento Bee and Roll Call

Amy Walter / Cook Political Report:

Three Most Likely Scenarios for Tuesday — When it comes to possible outcomes on Tuesday night, I see three potential scenarios. — 1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election — We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House.

Discussion: Tangle, Wall Street Journal, De Civitate, The Guardian, New Republic, The Daily Caller, WHNT-TV, Outside the Beltway and HuffPost

Spencer Abraham / Washington Free Beacon:
On Election Day, Here's What the Polls Really Say

Discussion: HotAir and Daily Kos

CNN:

Biden readies for ‘a horrible two years’ if GOP takes control of Congress — These investigations will take center stage in a Republican-led House — CNN political director explains how election calls are made — Pelosi describes her experience following husband's attack that was intended for her

Discussion: Washington Post, Associated Press, Reuters, The Hill, WPRI-TV, The Free Press, The Daily Wire, The Daily Caller, HuffPost, C-SPAN.org, Politico, CBS News and Blue Virginia

Catherine Rampell / Washington Post:
Democrats are drowning in denial

Discussion: Fox News, OPB, The Mahablog, HotAir, Mediaite, The Hill and Bloomberg

Politico:
POLITICO Playbook: Bidenworld makes peace with the midterms

Discussion: National Review, Fox News, Reuters, Opinion Today, Politico, CNN and Sabato's Crystal Ball

Jason Lange / Reuters:
Biden approval ticks lower as Democrats brace for midterm losses -Reuters/Ipsos

Discussion: The Hill, The Daily Caller, Washington Times, The Federalist and Sputnik News

NBC News:
As Democrats press ‘threat to democracy’ in campaign's final days, few GOP candidates still want to talk about 2020

Discussion: RedState, Politico, Eduwonk, CNN, Washington Post, Hyperallergic, Washington Times and The Guardian

Scott Dworkin / Newsweek:
Democracy Is on the Ballot. The Democrats Are the Only Choice

Discussion: Washington Examiner, AFP, Washington Post, Politico, The Guardian, The Bulwark, Letters from an American, WND, The Daily Caller, Herald, Associated Press, Fox News, Mediaite, Common Dreams, The New Arab, Al Jazeera and New York Magazine

Kimberly Wehle / The Bulwark:

Case After Case After Case: The GOP Keeps Suing to Toss Out Midterm Ballots — “While it is easy to hurl accusations of violations of law and corruption, it is another matter to come forward and produce the evidence.” — The midterms have sparked debate as to whether this election is a referendum on the future of American democracy.

Discussion: Washington Post, The Atlantic, Raw Story, MLive.com, Occupy Democrats, Los Angeles Times and Bridge Michigan

The Philadelphia Inquirer:

John Fetterman's Pa. Senate campaign is suing to have undated and misdated ballots counted — Lt. Gov. John Fetterman's campaign for U.S. Senate has joined the legal fight over whether mail ballots with no date or the incorrect date should be counted in Tuesday's election …

OpenSecrets.org:
Most Expensive Races — Some Congressional races are seeing more spent by super PACs …

Discussion: NewsNation, Semafor, NBC News, Raw Story, Fox News, Washington Post and The Post Millennial

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post:

Trump is losing steam. That's reason for Biden to bow out in 2024. — Donald Trump is losing steam. Even his nicknames have gotten weaker. — Over the weekend, right-wing commentators were irate at the former president for taking a jab at Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom he referred to as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

Discussion: Washington Examiner, The Guardian, The Daily Beast, HotAir and Echelon Insights

Jonathan Martin / Politico:

Biden's and Trump's Performances on the 2022 Trail Sow Doubts About 2024 — OCEANSIDE, Calif. — It's the bipartisan truth that dare not speak its name, at least not in public: Republicans and Democrats alike are stumbling into the midterm elections saddled with presidential frontrunners …

Discussion: Associated Press, New York Post, Bloomberg, Washington Times, Cyprus Mail, Instapundit, CBS News and The Hill

Matt Keener / American Thinker:
Does Joe Biden Know The Fix Is In?

Discussion: Chris Waldburger and Washington Post

Clare Foran / CNN:
‘I never thought it would be Paul’: Nancy Pelosi reveals how she first heard her husband had been attacked

Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine's Zelensky Sets Conditions for ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia — President says he is open to negotiations that guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was open to negotiations with Russia if they are focused …

Discussion: Washington Post, The Hill, Breitbart, The Daily Caller, The Times of Israel, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, PravdaReport and Euractiv

Washington Post:
Russia's heavy casualties in Ukraine spark outcry and rare official response

Discussion: Washington Examiner and The Hill

Washington Post:
In one Ukrainian village, occupation ended — and the feud began

Discussion: New York Times

Marc Santora / Reuters:
Russia-Ukraine War — As Battle in Skies Escalates, Ukraine Warns Russia Is Seeking Iranian Missiles

Discussion: The Hill, Defense One, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Balloon Juice and NPR

Associated Press:
N. Korea denies US claims it sent artillery shells to Russia

Discussion: Washington Examiner, The Hill, Defense One, The Guardian, Al Jazeera and globalnews.ca

Lawrence Norden / Brennan Center for Justice:

Why Does It Take So Long to Count Mail Ballots in Key States? Blame Legislatures … The slow count of mail ballots has been used to cast doubt on election results, but these delays are a deliberate choice by lawmakers in battleground states. — Lawrence Norden Photo — Derek Tisler Photo

Discussion: Washington Post, Brookings, HuffPost, USA Today, NPR, FOX8 WGHP, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Axios and Media Matters for America

Tim Miller / The Triad:

The Empress of Trollistan: Kari Lake Is Having the Time of Her Life — The party that's having fun usually wins. — Hey fam: JVL here. Tim has taken over the Triad this morning with a report from on the ground in Arizona. Instead of guessing about what's going to happen today …

Sam Roberts / New York Times:

Ernie Lazar, Who Trawled for Secret Government Documents, Dies at 77 — By pursuing his “unusual hobby” of filing as many as 10,000 Freedom of Information requests about extremist groups, he proved invaluable to historians and journalists. — Ernie Lazar, an unheralded hero of researchers …

Julia Davis / The Daily Beast:

Putin Insiders Pray for ‘Frightening’ GOP Election Sweep — Kremlin cheerleaders are hoping for Republicans to win big in the midterms to unleash “poisonous American spiders, tearing each other up” on Capitol Hill. — Russian state media is following the midterm elections in the United States …

Discussion: Raw Story

Nate Cohn / New York Times:

Are the Polls Still Missing ‘Hidden’ Republicans? Here's What We're Doing to Find Out. — There was no breakthrough in our experiment, but the differences were intriguing. — It won't be long until we learn the results of the 2022 midterm elections — and how the polls fared.

Washington Post:

Photos from Election Day: Across the U.S., voters head to the polls — Voters across the U.S. head to the polls in the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats and Republicans are locked in a fierce fight for control of the Senate, with a handful of races that could tip control of the chamber.

Discussion: USA Today and Iowa Starting Line

Bloomberg:

The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis — In the most densely populated corner of the US, temperatures are about to drop after a stretch of unusually warm weather. And the signs of a winter crisis are already multiplying. — Heating oil delivered to New York is the priciest ever.

Discussion: National Review, IJR and Washington Free Beacon

Casey Newton / Platformer:

Musk discusses putting all of Twitter behind a paywall — Will he go through with it? PLUS: Botched layoffs, how the new Blue could lose money, and more — If Friday brought massive layoffs to Twitter, Monday brought fresh evidence that the company will never be the same.

Discussion: Washington Examiner, Gizmodo, XDA Developers, HotAir, The Wrap, Fortune, Mashable, Metro.co.uk, The Register, Twitchy, New York Times, The Verge, Bloomberg, Adweek and Breitbart, more at Techmeme »

Washington Post:

DeSantis official says Justice Dept. can't send monitors to 3 Florida counties — The DeSantis administration is attempting to block Department of Justice election monitors from gaining access to polling places in South Florida, saying in a letter that the federal government's involvement would be …

Eli Lake / Commentary Magazine:

Can the FBI Be Saved from Itself—And Can We Be Saved from the FBI? — For the last half century, Americans have told themselves a pleasant story about the Federal Bureau of Investigation. It goes like this: Yes, there were abuses during the long tenure of FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover.

David Gilbert / VICE:

Meet the ‘Black Robe Regiment’ of Extremist Pastors Spreading Christian Nationalism — “There is a very serious spiritual battle we have and we don't have any problem with saying we are fighting things we can't see.” — David Gilbert — TO — PHOENIX — Days before the midterm elections …